To say that in the fourth quarter of 2017, the most active sector and the most profitable segment of the market will definitely be the chip semiconductor sector. There will be funds, news, and policy support. The rise is reasonable.
In 2018, as the performance of most companies in the chip semiconductor industry remained common, the main focus of funds shifted to more real estate and cyclic resources in 2017, and the short-term plate heat was noticeably lower than before. However, I believe that domestic substitution of the chip semiconductor industry chain in 2018 will still be one of the largest investment opportunities in the market.
First of all, chip semiconductors are related to national security, so the national team will inevitably take the lead in guiding industrial capital investment in order to realize the strategic goal of domestic substitution. China currently spends more than 200 billion U.S. dollars per year on chip imports. This is a huge foreign exchange expenditure and has already exceeded the cost of imported oil. Although China is one of the biggest buyers in the chip market, the right to speak in the chip market is not strong and is often treated unfairly by foreign giants. The previous incident of fines in the U.S. sky-high price by ZTE is a clear proof. Although ZTE's patents and research and development strengths are at the top level both at home and abroad, but because some of the core components related to it are subject to human beings, they can only endure unfair treatment.
On the other hand, Intel's "door-to-door" incident also revealed potential threats of excessive dependence on foreign chips. Intel's chips have been widely used in all walks of life in China. If these loopholes are used by people or organizations with ulterior motives, then China's financial Institutions, government departments, military departments, etc. will all face threats.
Second, China has the most favorable conditions for the development of the current chip semiconductor industry. China’s current semiconductor market has a huge demand, which already accounts for one-third of the global market. However, the chip self-sufficiency rate in 2016 is only 36%. It is determined by the State Council’s “Made in China 2025†that the chip self-sufficiency rate will reach 40% in 2020 and 50 in 2025. There is still a big gap between the goals of %.
Under the orientation of the national strategy, governments at all levels have provided full-scale support for the semiconductor industry of the chip, such as taxation, capital, and finance. On September 24, 2014, the National Integrated Circuit Industrial Investment Fund (hereinafter referred to as the "large fund") was formally established. At the same time, a number of local provinces and cities have also established or are preparing to establish integrated circuit industry funds. As of June 2017, the local integrated circuit industry investment fund mobilized by the "large fund" exceeded 500 billion yuan, which provided tremendous support for the development of China's integrated circuit industry.
According to the estimates of the International Semiconductor Equipment Materials Industry Association, from 2017 to 2020, about 62 wafer factories will be put into operation worldwide, of which 26 are located in China, accounting for 42% of the global total. Capital accumulation is expected to bring tremendous development opportunities to the upstream and downstream industries.
In general, there is a strong adjustment demand in the early stage of the chip semiconductor segment due to the short-term gains, but the midline is still worth watching. Among them, as the upstream semiconductor equipment and materials are expected to be the first to benefit; the preparation of the second phase of the major fund soon, the investment focus is expected to focus on the design field, the relevant listed companies are also worthy of active attention; In addition, the industry chain has developed a relatively mature packaging and testing Links and discrete devices also deserve attention.
We can actively pay attention to upstream equipment and materials companies, such as North Huachuang, Jingsheng Mechatronics, Changchuan Technology, Jiangfeng Electronics, Shanghai Xinyang, Zhonghuan, Zhichun Technology, Jianghuawei, Jacques Technology, etc. Enterprises, such as Ziguang Guoxin, Silan Micro, Beijing Junzheng, Zhaoyi Innovation, Fuweiwei, Guokewei, etc.; as well as packaging and testing and discrete device companies, including Changjiang Electronics, Taiji Industry, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Jiepeng. Czech Microelectronics, Yang Jie Technology, Taiwan-based shares.
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