During the campaign, Trump promised to change the production patterns of American companies abroad for decades (such as India and Mexico). He will change the state of the US manufacturing industry through taxation, trade barriers and other methods.
How will the US robot industry develop in the Trump era?
In the last weeks of last week's US presidential election, we sorted out the policy views of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on the field of automation in public. Let us take a closer look at what impact Trump may have on the US robotics industry.
Manufacturing and retail supply chains will embrace automation more
During the campaign, Trump promised to change the production patterns of American companies abroad for decades (such as India and Mexico). He will change the state of the US manufacturing industry through taxation, trade barriers and other methods.
But many manufacturers in the United States say it is difficult to find workers with low wages and technical skills in the United States. Revitalizing the factory and shortening the supply chain will undoubtedly increase domestic demand for industrial automation, and SMEs will be more inclined to collaborative robotics and process automation.
For areas that are already highly automated, such as cars and airlines, they have less impact, but at a higher cost, than those that rely on cheap labor overseas.
If Trump really brings mining jobs back to Pennsylvania and West Virginia, we can't predict whether this is a good or bad robot application for the field. But if infrastructure investment increases, such as building roads and bridges, this will stimulate the demand for exploration of drones and construction robots.
To sum up, there are the following points:
During Trump's administration, federal fiscal expenditures must change direction and may shift from agriculture and education to national defense.
Trade and tax policies will affect where products are manufactured and served, so the entire manufacturing and retail supply chain will switch to automation.
Immigration and labor policies will lead to increased demand for technologists and robots in specific areas.
Silicon Valley, which is out of sync with Trump, may be less attractive
The interdependence of the United States with Europe and Asia will be re-examined, which will affect US trade agreements with countries in these regions, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP).
As for the United Kingdom that has already left the EU, the United States is likely to renegotiate trade agreements with it. The Trump team must be very careful not to trigger a trade war.
There are many educational and research institutions in Europe that generate talent and create start-ups. These European start-ups often go to Silicon Valley to look for investment, but Silicon Valley and Trump smells are not well known. China is also keeping an eye on this talent and intellectual property. Last year, China’s direct overseas investment has reached $145 billion.
For American companies, using robots may be an advantage. Earlier, the EU was considering a proposal to tax industrial robots. Advanced industrial robots need to be registered and pay a price for the unemployment rate, which means that Europe will be able to charge a certain amount of additional taxes. At present, there is no similar law in the United States, and companies are equivalent to enjoying tax benefits.
Scholars turn to the field of applied science, the use of American professional talents and robots increases
Trump will work on employment issues. His plan is to reduce financial expenditures on education and research, which may force scholars to turn their research direction into applied science and seek financial support from enterprises.
As college tuition becomes more expensive, college students may become more and more inclined to vocational colleges. The previously degraded blue-collar and gray-collar jobs will increase.
Grey collar refers to a group of practitioners between white-collar workers and blue-collar workers. It has both brain-moving and hands-on skills. In the United States, gray-collar practitioners may have a community college degree and have some engineering-specific skills.
Trump may reduce the H-1B visa for highly skilled legal immigrants and tighten the illegal immigration policy, which will increase the demand for American workers and robots, especially in agriculture, retail and hospitality.
Robots in defense: war and border control
Trump claims to increase defense spending, which will help robots in various fields, including autonomous driving, humanoid robots, military robots and law enforcement robots.
Trump promised to build a wall on the US-Mexico border, so safe robots and drones might be used in this area. Of course, there are still many ethical dilemmas in the use of automated robots in war and law enforcement. For example, in July this year, the Dallas police in the United States killed a gun suspect with an explosion-proof robot, causing controversy.
In Asia, the US's concerns about North Korea will enhance its cooperation with the robotic powerhouse Japan, increasing the use of underwater drones and unmanned vessels.
In the Middle East, Trump has stated that he wants to evacuate the United States from protracted Iraq and Afghanistan while enhancing its presence in ISIS and Iran. This means that more reconnaissance drones, ranged attack systems and ground robots will be used to support the military.
Conflicts in other parts of the Middle East and North Africa (including Syria, Yemen, etc.) have led to an increase in demand for military robots, which will come mainly from manufacturers in the United States and other countries.
Trump and American Robot Roadmap
We believe that certain macroeconomic and technological trends will continue to exist regardless of who is in charge of the White House and Congress. Robot parts will be more powerful and cheaper, some products will be commercialized, robots will become more flexible, and their usage will continue to increase.
With the application of artificial intelligence and machine learning in the fields of finance, security, and government functions, a new wave of efficiency and profit growth may come.
Although the Internet of Things, big data, and cloud-based robots are growing rapidly, they need some federal policy support. According to "Tech.pinions", Trump expressed less opinions on the technology industry during the campaign period. Trump is more likely to not interfere too much than Obama's involvement in science and technology. But patents, privacy and security issues in these areas require the attention of regulations.
Unmanned vehicles are now close to federal policy guidelines, but unmanned vehicle manufacturers are more interested in system-based laws than in state laws.
Many countries have developed a robot strategy for 2020, and 2020 is exactly the next US presidential election year. Researchers at the University of California, San Diego, recently released a new version of the "American Robot Roadmap," calling for more regulatory, research, and educational input in the field. But will Trump accept the advice of this report?
In any case, whether for American politics or the US robotics industry, the next four years will be critical.
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