The recent rebound in the LED market has also stimulated the strength of the LED stock market, mainly due to the change in shipment data in the LED lighting field. In the off-season characteristics of the fourth quarter of the year, the shipment data of LED lighting products in the fourth quarter of last year was significantly higher than the industry expectation.
The main logic of the current LED market is the general lighting driver. Different from previous backlights and commercial lighting drivers, General Lighting is a truly billion-dollar market. It is expected that the global civil lighting market will exceed 100 billion in 2014 for the first time. It is expected to reach 160 billion yuan in 2015. The two-year review growth rate is around 60%. LEDs ushered in the biggest point of explosion.
Lighting as the largest blue ocean of LEDs, upstream and downstream have been waiting for the right outbreak opportunity. As the downstream data continues to improve, the industry generally believes that the era of low prices is coming, the bursting period of the LED lighting market has arrived, and the new round of channel killing is also on the string.
The era of low prices is coming
Shipments counter-cyclical volume, prices and incandescent lamps are getting closer and closer, major research institutions have given high growth expectations for LED lighting, and China's LED lighting products are expected to grow by more than 80% in 2014.
As the last and largest increment of the LED industry, lighting has been highly regarded since 2009. However, the timing of its outbreak has been unsatisfactory. The reasons are: first, the driving force of overseas markets is insufficient, and the second is also related to its lack of price.
At present, the “ban†campaign in North America has started, product prices have fallen rapidly, and barriers to the downstream promotion of LED lights are being eliminated. LED inside analyst Wang Fei believes that it is not difficult to observe the recent retail price of LED bulbs in the mainland. The number of LED bulbs sold in the market has soared. The distribution of lumens per dollar tends to converge, and the value center moves down. The era of low-cost LED lighting has arrived.
The most important trend in the LED lighting market in 2014 is that the lighting industry is shifting from brand-scale economy competition to manufacturing economies of scale plus the scale economy of the brand, which makes the industrial concentration of LED lighting era higher than traditional lighting. Of course, from another dimension, this has always been the LED lighting of the channel, and the killing in 2014 will be even more fierce.
In the industry model, Philips, Foshan Lighting and other well-known traditional manufacturers at home and abroad have obvious advantages in first-mover, and more choices to promote LED products in the original dealers, stores and other channels; NVC, Sunshine, Op, Sanxiong, etc. The local lighting manufacturers have increased their cooperation with dealers while increasing their investment in the store to increase channel coverage and brand awareness. Changfang, Hongli and other manufacturers extending from LED packaging to downstream applications. Because LED application products account for a relatively low proportion of revenue, and because of the control costs, the investment in its own channels is relatively conservative, mostly based on the dealer model.
Another emerging channel that cannot be ignored is e-commerce. The data shows that during the "Double Eleven" period of this year, the sales of Ou Pu Lighting, Ao Duo, Chau Ming Han Yuan and other lighting brands have exceeded 10 million mark. Among them, Ou Pu Lighting is the official flagship of Tmall. The store's single store sales of 57 million yuan proudly topped the list, ranking first in the building materials category. In 2013, the newly established Zhouming Hanyuan brand in Taobao Mall, the sales of products in the first hour of “Double Eleven†exceeded 3 million yuan.
The China Merchants Securities Research Institute believes that the sales of LED lighting in the e-commerce channel has great potential for explosion. In 2012, the total sales of LED lighting products on platforms such as Taobao and Jingdong was about 3 billion yuan, accounting for only 7% of the LED lighting market. It is expected that by 2015 this ratio is expected to reach more than 20%.
Some analysts pointed out that due to the early Spring Festival of the Lunar Calendar in 2014, the industry will continue to maintain a booming production and sales situation under the superposition of factors such as stocking before the holiday and placing orders from overseas customers. After digesting stocks during the Spring Festival, March is expected to usher in a new wave of stocking.
Investors can closely monitor the growth and flexibility of industry leaders around the main line of demand for the general lighting market in Europe and the United States. First, pay attention to the European and American markets, the brands and foundry leading enterprises that have passed the relevant standards certification, such as NVC Lighting and Sunlight Lighting; the second is to pay attention to the high correlation with downstream applications, and the finer links in the industry chain. Leading enterprises, such as Dehao Runda in the chip segment, Farah Electronics in the capacitor circuit, and third, focus on the transformation of electronics companies to consumer companies, looking for millet in the LED field, such as rectangular lighting.
Sunlight lighting: production and sales simultaneously, pushing up LED lighting growth
Increase capital plant factory, increase LED lighting capacity
The company plans to increase the capital of the company by 45 million yuan. After the capital increase, the registered capital of the company will reach 50 million yuan. We expect Jinzhai to add 2 million LED light sources and 300,000 LED lamps per month, which is close to Shangyu's factory, which is equivalent to 30% of existing LED lighting capacity. Jinzhai Company was established in June 2013 and has completed the preparatory work in the early stage. After the capital increase is completed, the land will be purchased and the plant will be built. We expect to start production in 2015 to cope with the rapid growth of the industry.
Establish a sales company in Australia to open up local markets
At the same time, the company plans to invest 1 million Australian dollars (about 5.4 million yuan), set up Australia's Ai Nite Lighting Company in Australia, engaged in the sale of lighting products, especially LED lighting products. This is different from India's Ai Nite Lighting, which was cancelled last year. The Indian company is a joint venture company and has an independent factory. The Australian company is a sole proprietorship company focusing on energy-saving lighting sales. Since Australia banned incandescent lamps as early as 2009, energy-efficient lighting products have grown rapidly in recent years. In 2012, the lighting market capacity was 1.64 billion US dollars, and about 510 million US dollars were imported from China. We believe that the establishment of the company will help Sunshine develop the Australian market. In the next two years, the company's LED lighting revenue growth rate, we expect the Australian company will contribute to 2014 sales, Jinzhai factory gradually put into production in 2015, so the company's LED lighting in 2014 and 2015 revenue growth rate to 110% and 60%.
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