Huawei continued its 40% revenue growth in the first half of 2016, allowing people to call “elephant runningâ€, and what does this have to do with the cloud? In short, Huawei is one of the biggest beneficiaries of cloud computing, big data, and mobile internet. In the past, now, in the future, or not, it depends on whether Ren Zhengfei can lead Huawei across the cloud era.
Different from any ICT company, Huawei is a unique sample of the cloud era and needs to be discussed separately. The cloud era is too big and too complicated. So before discussing Huawei, let's take a look at what happened in the cloud era.
First, the cloud is an era, there is a gap
The cloud era has come, and the recession has caused ICT giants to transform and merge in confusion. IBM's revenue declined for several consecutive years, HP was split, Dell and EMC merged, and Nokia and Alcatel merged. This is the worst era, but it is not the end of the story.
Diane Greene, president of Google Cloud, said this year that she believes only 5% of commercial workloads are currently running on the cloud. According to VMSinger Kissinger, 50% of the workload in 2030 runs on the public cloud. This is also the best era, and the opportunity for the cloud has just begun.
A few giants such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have already taken an absolute advantage in the public cloud space, but the pattern has not yet solidified. In the decade of cloud computing, only the early warm-up of the market was completed. The workload on the cloud is still the primary application of the Internet native enterprise. The massive commercial application load did not migrate to the cloud on a large scale. why? Let's review the history of electrical popularity.
In 1882, Edison invented the electric light for the first time to illuminate Manhattan. But after three or four decades, humans began to transition from the steam age to the electrical age. In the steam era, people use the crankshaft to transmit power. The factories built for them are high-rise buildings stacked on top of each other. The electric age brings high efficiency and flexibility without space for display. It was not until the end of the First World War in 1918 that the old factory was destroyed and the electrical era really came.
(Note: Geoffrey Moore proposed a divide theory in the high-tech market in 1991, where there is often a huge difference between early market user demand and the mainstream market, thus creating a market divide)
History is often crawled in small steps, and there is only one jump from time to time. It was the destructive nature of World War I that prompted people to jump into the electrical age from the steam age.
The popularity of cloud computing is the same, infrastructure, operation and maintenance habits, rewriting software, development of new applications, the birth of new application models... Cloud computing is also crawling in small steps. When does cloud computing jump? How to reconstruct the cloud pattern? The answer is unknown.
However, before the early years of the cloud market enter the high-speed growth period, cloud computing must face a huge market gap. This is a law that exists in countless markets, but it is often overlooked.
Second, see the hidden market gap from the "Kodak moment"
The Harvard Business Review recently rewrote the review of Kodak, noting that Kodak was not subverted by digital technology as people imagined, indulging in traditional images. In 1975, the world's first digital camera was born in Kodak. In 2001, Kodak acquired Ofoto, the leading digital photo sharing site, before Facebook was born. However, Kodak was not able to successfully transform because of his love of photo printing business.
In fact, Kodak is not falling in the technical ditch!
Based on the needs of the work, the author made some in-depth and continuous observations on Kodak at that time. In the 1990s, Kodak invested about $1 billion in digital imaging, mastering all the professional digital technologies from the core components of digital cameras to post-processing. No one was able to look back. For example: At that time, only Kodak could manufacture full-size CCD image sensors. Kodak would distribute 10 CCDs for Canon and Nikon, and 8 of them. Canon and Nikon were forced to sell ODM digital to Kodak. The body, Kodak easily obtained 80% of the professional digital SLR market.
The long-term technological monopoly has caused Kodak to create the illusion that the professional user demand of early digital cameras represents the future direction, and does not recognize the huge demand and difference of digital cameras in the consumer market. At the end of the 1990s, Kodak was aware of the difference in the dreams of the leaders. The consumer digital market has already taken the lead. The professional market has been broken by Canon and Sony's CMOS image sensors in the 21st century. Historically, The "Kodak moment" began to count down.
The fact that Kodak’s revenue from CCD and digital camera patents can reach billions of dollars is not the fault and conservativeness of Kodak’s technical cognition, but the misjudgment of the future market. Kodak is at the foot of his great achievements. The technology gap, but failed to cross the market divide.
Third, the technology and ecological divide across the cloud era
1. Cloud computing is at an early stage, the market gap has not yet arrived
The market gap that Kodak moments vividly displays is also a reference for the development of the cloud computing market. There are several reasons for defining the current cloud computing market as an early market:
First, the Internet's native application is the mainstream of the cloud market. Most of the business and industry workloads are not clouded. There will be more than 10 times the market space in the next 10 years. Second, cloud computing is still the basis of the manufacturer's standards. Compatibility has not become mainstream, and all public clouds have large-scale downtime every year, which means that industry and technology maturity are relatively limited; third, the ecological maturity that is compatible with cloud technology is insufficient.
Recognizing that cloud computing is still in the early stages, let's take a look at the development gaps that cloud computing players may face after the early market.
2. Transforming to the cloud era must first cross the gap between ecology and technology
(Note: Strategic Patterns for Cloud Computing Development - Ecological Divide and Technology Divide)
As shown in the figure, the ecological divide and technological divide for cloud computing development. The first thing to note is that this picture integrates representative vendors in different fields of cloud computing, covering the infrastructure, platforms, and applications of cloud computing, involving public, private, and hybrid clouds. The ecosystem also considers partners, Developers and even users. Therefore, this is just a schematic diagram. It is important to look at the big patterns in each cloud computing and look for the rules behind them. Players in different fields cannot compare their relative positions.
It's almost only Amazon and Google that are relatively well developed in terms of technology and ecology. Azure's failures make it difficult to trust Microsoft's technology maturity, but the vast developer and user ecosystem put Azure at the forefront of the market. Due to the lack of attention to cloud infrastructure services, Google is not doing enough in the market and services.
Every cloud computing vendor's every move, its strategic intentions are obvious, there are some rules to follow, but to cross the technology gap and the ecological divide, even the giant is not easy to do.
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