The new energy industry is insufficient, not surplus, will explode in 5 years
Is there a surplus of new energy industry?
With the National Development and Reform Commission including the six major industries of steel, cement, flat glass, coal chemical, polysilicon, and wind power equipment in the key control catalog, whether the new energy industry is surplus, this issue is triggering heated discussions. The diametrically opposed judgments of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Science and Technology have become one of the focus of discussion.
Recently, a reporter from this magazine interviewed relevant experts from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, etc. on whether "surplus" is present or not.
NDRC: China's overcapacity is comprehensive
The contradiction of overcapacity has a long history. Ma Xiaohe, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with reporters that the current overcapacity is not only the above six industries, China ’s overcapacity is comprehensive, and the industry and industry-related industries are in excess, such as clothing and shoes. Hats, mobile phones, color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, motorcycles, etc.
"Mainly because China's industry is export-oriented, and its dependence on foreign countries is as high as 60%, especially with the outbreak of the financial crisis, external demand has suddenly decreased, and exports have even experienced negative growth, which has increased the domestic pressure. If it cannot be consumed again, the problem of overcapacity will be highlighted. "Ma Xiaohe said.
There is no doubt that adjustments and restrictions on excess traditional industries such as steel and cement are timely and necessary.
However, after investigation by experts from the China Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy, the new energy industry has just started. In the long run, the new energy industry is not a problem of surplus, but is far from insufficient. The market demand for new energy industry will show explosive growth in the next 3-5 years.
Research by the Ministry of Science and Technology: Polysilicon gap of 20,000 tons
Polysilicon is the most basic raw material for the semiconductor industry, information industry and solar photovoltaic power generation industry. In recent years, with the rapid development of the global solar photovoltaic industry, the global crystalline silicon market has experienced explosive growth. However, since last year, due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the demand for foreign solar cells has shrunk severely, and the price of polysilicon has dropped significantly, which has directly affected the development of China's polysilicon industry.
So, is polysilicon really in excess?
In order to find out the photovoltaic capacity, the research team of China Academy of Scientific and Technological Development Strategy recently conducted a survey on domestic wind power and polysilicon manufacturers. Judging from this: the two new energy industries of polysilicon and wind power are still industries that should be vigorously and rapidly developed. The current question is how to promote the development of these two industries better and faster, rather than simply suppress.
Liu Feng, director of the Industrial Research Institute of China Science and Technology Development Strategy Institute, who conducted the survey, said: "Although China's crystalline silicon production capacity is expanding rapidly, due to construction cycles and market fluctuations, the crystalline silicon industry has always been in short supply. There is still a gap in actual demand, and polysilicon still needs to be imported. "
Liu Feng told reporters that after conducting a series of surveys, they learned that in 2008, China ’s polysilicon production was 4,500 tons, and the demand for polysilicon has exceeded 20,000 tons, which means that about 3/4 of the demand still needs to be imported to meet . If the domestic photovoltaic cell output in 2009 remained at the 2008 level (2300 MW), according to the industry average of 12 tons of crystalline silicon per MW of photovoltaic cells, a total of 28,000 tons of polycrystalline silicon is required. It is estimated that the domestic polysilicon output in 2009 may exceed 10,000 tons, which means that at least nearly 20,000 tons of polysilicon will be imported in 2009 to meet domestic production needs.
"Since polysilicon is a product of high energy consumption and high pollution, it should be regulated in the context of national energy saving and emission reduction. However, macro-control should be based on the promotion of industrial technology upgrade, otherwise it will play a role in private investment. Inhibition. "Liu Feng reminded reporters whether polysilicon is surplus, it is necessary to conduct an overall analysis from the direction of the entire energy development and the layout of the entire industry chain. Look.
Undoubtedly, the solar photovoltaic industry is an important direction for China to develop new energy, promote economic structural adjustment, and cultivate strategic emerging industries. At present, this industry is in an important period of development.
"The development of the solar photovoltaic industry reflects the initial stage characteristics of emerging industries. It is a problem in development and can only be solved through development. We should scientifically grasp the development rules of the crystalline silicon industry and focus on solving the problems facing development. Promote the development of the solar photovoltaic industry better and faster, rather than limiting. "Wang Yuan, executive deputy dean of the China Academy of Science and Technology Development, told the reporter.
Wind power overcapacity "exaggerated"
According to official statistics, about 30% of the country's wind power plants are "basking" and are not operating.
"This question is how to understand it. Some researchers understand 'overcapacity' and often think of capacity as the sum of existing production capacity, production capacity under construction and planned production capacity is greater than the sum of actual consumption capacity, which is excess capacity. We believe that As far as the wind power industry is concerned, planned production capacity (including capacity under construction), etc. are all (completely) realized production capacity. Even if it is completely completed, it will have a low production period of 1-2 years. If these are included in the actual production capacity, It will undoubtedly exaggerate the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. "Dr. Chen Zhi, who participated in the survey, said.
The China Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy Research recently learned that in the field of wind turbines in China, the first echelon is Huarui, Goldwind and Dongqi, and they have already had mass production capabilities a few years ago. The second echelon is less than 10 companies such as Shanghai Electric, Mingyang, Xiangdian, etc., and has entered mass production stage since 2008. The third echelon includes more than 20 enterprises such as Huachuang and Hanwei, who have just produced prototypes or are in small batch trial production. Several companies in the fourth echelon have just entered the industry and have not yet launched products. In addition, some companies have also proposed fan manufacturing plans, but no actual action. At present, it is the first two echelons of companies that really have production capacity, and the three companies in the first echelon are the main ones.
"Therefore, the possible or planned capacity is included in the actual capacity, and the estimate of 'excess capacity' is obviously overstated." Dr. Chen Zhi said.
Wind energy is a direction that can be developed in the future. In Liu Feng's view, there is currently a certain amount of wind energy surplus, mainly due to the uncoordinated construction of the power grid and the construction of wind farms, resulting in some wind farms not being able to be connected to the grid in a timely manner or after the grid is limited. Current dispatching agencies also lack dispatching experience and technical means for wind farms.
"It's equivalent to products that can't be sold when they are produced. No one buys them and it seems to be excessive. State Grid must first allow Internet access before it can be sold online." Liu Feng told reporters.
At present, the power grid bottleneck has become a prominent problem in the development of new energy.
"The current 'overcapacity' in emerging industries represented by wind energy and solar energy is actually a typical phased and bottleneck surplus. If the new energy industry is to move forward, it is imperative to hurry up Instead of taking back the foot that was taken, we should improve the power grid instead of suppressing wind energy. We must not miss the opportunity to drive future development and seize the commanding heights of global competition because of choking food. "Wang Yuan further Emphasized.
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