With regard to 5G commercial use in 2020, the communications industry has had a lot of imagination. Ericsson's report predicts that by 2020, the number of smartphone users will reach 6.1 billion, the number of mobile broadband users will reach 7.7 billion, and the total number of mobile users will reach 9.2 billion. After five years, the amount of data flowing on the mobile network will be 10 times that of the current one.
“It can be said that by 2020, everyone in the world can use mobile phones, and two-thirds of them use smart phones, and many of them have no personal computers at home.†Ericsson Asia Pacific Chief Tech Officer Magnus Ewerbring said in an interview with Phoenix and other media.
Magnus Ewerbring, Chief Technology Officer, Ericsson Asia Pacific
Communication in 2020 is no longer limited to "people and people", but also covers "people and things", "things and things." In 2020, there will be about 26 billion connected devices worldwide, including mobile phones and laptops. Personal computers also include communication between machines. In short, this is a world of Internet of Everything, and interconnected devices, including intelligent transportation systems, place new demands on network reliability, low latency, sensors, and batteries.
From another perspective, this explosive demand is a disaster for existing mobile broadband networks. From the 2020 commercial backwards to push the 5G timetable, time is tight.
In Ericsson's 5G program, 2015-2016, mainly to display a variety of 5G technology components, 2018-2019, will begin pre-commercial 5G test network. Ericsson defines 5G primarily in six areas: scalability, flexibility, sustainability, standardization, security and reliability.
“Last year, we have already done 5G prototype equipment for testing, some of which have a peak rate of nearly 6 Gbps. In the high frequency range of 15G Hz, we can still achieve such technical requirements.†Magnus Ewerbring said. “At the same time, we are gradually starting to use it in some practical scenarios. In the next few years, we will gradually move to the commercial environment, and then we can enter the pre-commercial deployment.â€
At the Mobile Communications Conference held in Shanghai, Chairman of China Mobile, Guohua Guo, said that 1 million 4G base stations will be built this year. At the same time, China Mobile and Huawei and Japan Softbank jointly released a new generation of standards and solutions TDD+, compatible with existing 4G networks. In the case of devices and terminals, 5x spectral efficiency relative to 4G is achieved.
Ericsson holds a similar position, that is, the evolution of 4G technology and the research and development of 5G technology will be carried out simultaneously and coexist for a long time.
“Operators are hoping to make further developments on existing investments, partly based on the evolution of existing technologies, fully backwards compatible, making full use of existing investments, and others being relatively more revolutionary. We think these two parts should It complements each other, allowing operators to have continuous development and seamless connectivity, and transition to 2020 and 2025.†Magnus Ewerbring said, “After 2020, we will still be committed to the improvement of LTE technology, whether it is TDD or FDD."
But he also said that the evolution of 4G technology is in the name of "4.5G", which is just a means of marketing. Currently, the so-called 4.5G design technology is still part of 4G LTE.
For the 5G standard issue, Magnus Ewerbring believes that the 5G standard is not only a matter of the mobile communication industry, but also involves the entire ICT industry, such as cloud planning, network function modularization, etc. "So we also need to closely track other organizations, For example, Open NFV work, because we will fully use their technology or standards in 5G."
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