Recently, there are a lot of LED forums, but there are many sayings about the future trend. The core content of the LED industry is becoming less and less. In November of the early winter, Professor Nakamura mentioned three new trends in the LED industry in the Beijing Forum. , including Micro LED, laser lighting and LiFi, may be because the LED industry is very mature, these technologies feel very close to us, but in fact far away, it may be necessary to explain the future LED technology and industry trends, Let friends who are engaged in the LED industry refer to it.
As a sober LED veteran, I still see some technical trends and the future direction of the product. I remember that after attending the Frankfurt Lighting Fair in 2014, when everyone was starting to pick up smart lighting, I judged this to be a The hype of LED technology will definitely not become the mainstream of LED in the short term. As I expected, smart lighting is still high and low. "To say a new word, it is the biggest close-up of the forum and the media. So the recent forums and media are very exciting. There are laser lighting, LiFi and Micro LED give LED technicians unlimited hope, and there are also GaN high-power devices. HEMT's hot discussion is another spring for LED extension and chip technology. Dreams are beautiful, but the reality is cruel. What will LED look like in the future? This question really needs us to think hard.
1. Is LED lighting industry or semiconductor industry?In the end, LED is a semiconductor industry or a lighting industry. Now everyone has deep confusion. According to my recent observations, after this year, LED has completely entered the lighting industry. Its semiconductor industry is becoming weaker and weaker. How to explain it? We can compare the characteristics of the two industries, we will introduce these two industries separately!
Characteristics of the semiconductor industry
We know that IC has Moore's Law, which predicts the number of circuits integrated on an integrated circuit chip that doubles every 18 months, and the performance of the microprocessor doubles every 18 months, or the price drops by half. As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2 below:
(â–² Figure 1, the number of chips per unit area: microscopic Moore's Law)
(â–² Figure 2, Moore's Law of Chip Performance and Speed)
Moore's Law still accurately predicts the technical trend of IC chips, and IC-related industries have spent a lot of money on R&D to make the best and fastest processors or memory chips for performance and speed, so we almost every year. You will see the latest electronic product replacement and stimulate the demand of young consumers. This is the biggest feature of the semiconductor industry: investment → technology beyond → electronic product replacement → product market saturation → investment → technology and beyond...
So almost every two to two years, our electronic products, such as mobile phones, will produce new products, and the new mobile phone will cost 30% to 50% more than the previous generation. This is the semiconductor industry. He is always accelerating, almost unwilling. Slow down, because deceleration means being eliminated, so it is an industry in which capital and talent are indispensable. In addition to absorbing a large amount of funds, it also monopolizes a large number of talents.
Similarly, LEDs in compound semiconductors have a Weiz law that we are less familiar with:
(â–² Figure 3, Heiz's law)
As shown in Figure 3, this law predicts that the price of LEDs will be 1/10 of the original 10 years, and the output lumens will increase by 20 times, as shown in Figure 3, from the first visible red light commercialization of 1962 to the present. This law seems to be perfect for predicting the technology and price trends of LEDs.
Since Dr. Nakamura’s invention of the first commercial blue LED in 1993, LEDs have entered the full-color era, but at that time the LEDs were expensive and the brightness was not bright, so the application was limited. After seven years of exploration, the industry slowly moved to In the hands of the Chinese, Taiwan is the driving force behind the first wave of LED enthusiasm. As shown in Figure 4, from 2000 to 2008, LED entered the first golden age, and technological progress is the biggest driving force for LED growth. The first wave of laser The cutting technology drastically reduces the cost of the chip, and the introduction of the ITO transparent conductive layer to replace the nickel-gold transparent electrode technology has doubled the brightness, and the LED enters the backlight era.
(â–² Figure 4, LED technology and market application trend chart from 2002 to 2015)
From 2008 to 2010, the PSD technology of the graphics substrate was poured in, so that the large-size backlight began to use a large number of LEDs instead of CCFL. The semiconductor properties of LEDs reached a climax, and the technical talents could live in a new round. The Chinese mainland began a new round of crazy investment. Taiwan has slowly moved to mainland China, and a series of technologies have been brought to the mainland by Taiwanese engineers. Taiwan and the mainland have changed from a division of labor to a competitive relationship.
From 2014 to 2016, LED is a transition from the semiconductor high-tech industry to the transition of the lighting industry for three years. As the European, American, Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese companies compete because of the irrational price competition in mainland China, the result is not good for the LED industry. The feeling of going, their investment in LED technology is almost a slap in the face, many companies almost have to give up this chicken, so since the company announced in 2014 that Cree announced the release of 303 lumens, the European, American, Japanese and Korean Taiwanese companies have few voices. In contrast, companies in mainland China are much more active.
The growth of LED chip technology has not contributed much to Hayes' law, but the Chinese packaging industry can be said to have spent a lot of effort on cost. The localization of silica gel has led to a rapid decrease in the cost of glue, and the current density of LED devices has tripled. The large current over drive drives the lamp bead to greatly reduce the cost. The use of alloy wire and palladium-plated copper wire reduces the cost by a certain proportion. Chinese LED manufacturers have almost exhausted their efforts to reduce costs. Heiz's law seems to It has reached the limit and has almost lost the property of semiconductor technology to drive industry growth. It no longer requires a lot of investment, and it doesn't require as many high-end talents.
Characteristics of the lighting industry
The lighting industry is a very traditional industry. It has been nearly 137 years since the Edison tungsten filament bulb. This industry has a special feature. The initial technology development is a high-tech industry, but with the maturity of the bulb products, technology and The proportion of development is getting lower and lower, the industry is becoming more and more mature, the research and development and engineering verification funds that need to be invested will be lower and lower, the value of technicians will also begin to depreciate, and marketing and market channels are becoming more and more important. This industry is in history. After several product upgrades, such as the emergence of energy-saving lamps and the recent rise of LED semiconductor lighting, the closest thing we see is the era of LED lighting rising rapidly and monopolizing the market, as shown in Figure 4 above, 2014 Since the beginning of the year, the proportion of technological breakthroughs in LED development has gradually decreased. The breakthroughs in LED disruptive technology have become less and less. There is almost no technology that can trigger a big explosion of LED application products.
Just like tungsten lamps and energy-saving lamps, the initial stage is a high-tech industry that is uncompromising, but in less than a few years, it has become a mature lighting industry, and the leading role of technology is becoming less and less. The direction of the industry is management, scale and access. The troika parallel industry, as shown in Figure 4, when the LED lighting output value began to exceed the large-size backlight production value in 2014, everyone feels not so strong, this year's 2016, LED The output value of lighting has been greater than the output value of other LED applications. The LED semiconductor industry has become increasingly weak. It is about to enter 2017. Have you ever felt that the semiconductor era of LED has come to an end and officially entered the era of lighting industry?
2, LED helplessness and ambiguity: the lighting is unbeaten in the East, but the display is forced into the cornerFrom the above analysis of the semiconductor industry and the lighting industry, we should be able to realize that LEDs are already in the lighting industry, and that LEDs almost let other light sources have no chance of turning over. In the next ten or even thirty years, LEDs must be the light source used by every household. Just like the tungsten light bulbs before the 1970s and the energy-saving lamps of the late twentieth century, it has become a necessity for human beings to shine. Technological advancement is no longer the driving force for its advancement, because it is already the cheapest price, light effect. The highest pollution-free light source, now you use the LED bulb is 100 lumens, you will change the lamp because Philips recently released a new 120-watt tile product? LED light sources do not appear as electronic consumer goods as long as the technology is updated, there will be a change in the tide, and the proportion of technology to reduce costs is getting smaller and smaller, this situation will last for a long time.
In addition to the recent demand for small pitch, the backlight market can be described as bleak, the saturation of the large-size backlight market, and the OLED's step by step, the LED backlight in the liquid crystal display supply chain seems to be in a very embarrassing situation, the recent atmosphere Are you introducing Micro LEDs, is there really a chance to make this technology a stage for oversupply technicians? Below is my personal analysis of the future of this technology.
3, pale and powerless LED technicians counterattack! Micro LEDRecently, the micro LED has been fired hot. This wave of hot discussion is very special. It started from overseas and didn't produce much ripples in China. I always thought that before the LCD TV came out, the update of display technology was more meaningful. Clear picture quality, saving a lot of electricity and less harmful pollutants, like lighting, through tungsten lamps, energy-saving lamps to LED, the goal is to save more electricity and environmental protection, display technology is also the case, to the LCD era It is a milestone.
However, human beings have never been an animal that is satisfied with the status quo. Nowadays, the competition of display technology is how to meet the more demanding greed requirements of human vision. Therefore, as the figure 5 shows, the main axis is the confrontation of LCD+LED backlight and OLED. It is a quantum dot, laser display and small-pitch LED display. LED is always a supporting or following role in this war. LCD and OLED are against each other. LED is the backlight of LCD. The essence is LCD and OLED. Small-pitch LED The display screen can only be a supporting role in this war. It is almost impossible to challenge the mainstream of the market. It can only play in the outdoor and indoor display market.
(â–² Figure 5, showing the competition map of the industry)
Is there a chance for the recently heated Micro LED? This question is difficult to answer, but the reality is also very cruel, even if Micro LED can replace the display market? Does it affect the entire LED market? I think the answer is that LED technology practitioners don't want to hear it. I tried to answer the two aspects of the recent discussion about the advantages of Micro LED:
One: Micro LED technology can compete with OLED, leading the future display market!
Answer: According to the advantages of Micro LED technology I have seen, there is indeed a higher strength with OLED, but it just takes back the lost market, OLED replaces LCD+LED backlight, Micro LED then kills OLED, go Once, the LED is still the LED, but the role changes from backlight to active pixel illumination, the technology is upgraded, and the cost may increase more. Moreover, OLED is still competing with LCD, their investment is huge, the cost will be lower and lower, Micro LEDs will compete with them in the innate weakness, it will be difficult to pose threats to them in a short time, and the technology maturity is very low. At present, I only see the concept stage. I want to compete. It is estimated that it is difficult to have five years. success.
Statement 2: Micro LED will solve the problem of excess upstream, and there will be room for expansion in the upstream!
Answer: OLED should replace LCD+LED backlight, LED is indeed threatened by the reduction of usage, but because of the rise of the lighting market, this reduction will not have much impact on the LED market, and the current rise of the small-pitch display market, LED usage is indeed A lot has been added. Even if Micro LED replaces OLED, there is no wave in the LED market. It is a few percentage points increase in LED usage. It is a fake issue to use Micro LED to solve the problem of overcapacity of LED chips. At least the mainland is not, perhaps overseas LED manufacturers need, because LED backlight demand has shrunk very seriously, and there is no new technology to stimulate the display market, they will be more sad, more difficult to survive.
Therefore, Micro LED is unlikely to be valued by the mainland. This is the vision that Taiwan and overseas LED companies have described in order to differentiate themselves from mainland competitors. It may be successful. These overseas LED player differentiation strategies have worked, but The impact of the entire LED market is limited, the most injured is the recent decline in South Korea, because the biggest impact is OLED, but for the mainland companies that have recently desperately hit the LCD ten-generation and eleventh-generation factories, is the impact not greater? ? The investment in the future production of Micro LED is also said to be very large. The price/performance ratio can not exceed the above-mentioned Korean OLED and mainland LCD players. My opinion is pessimistic. Just like the experience of Don Quixote, I can only use LED technology people pale and powerless to describe the significance of Micro LED for this industry.
4. Does LED have a chance to return to the semiconductor industry?At present, LED technology has entered a bottleneck period. The flip-chip or CSP technology that is expected by the technology seems to have entered the thunder and raindrops in 2016, especially the CSP. In addition to the large-size backlight, it seems that the lighting industry cannot start any lighting manufacturer. Interest, only special and niche market, semiconductor technology route has room to play, flip-chip technology for mobile phone flash, silicon substrate vertical structure technology for automotive lighting and UV LED, CSP technology for the market shrinking backlight , GaN homogenous substrate technology for laser? These tall technologies seem to focus only on specific markets, and have little effect on general lighting. It seems that LEDs have to return to the semiconductor era!
Unless the flip-chip technology can improve the LED cost performance by more than 30% compared to the formal dressing, according to the current flip-chip eutectic technology or reflow soldering technology, it seems difficult to achieve the performance and cost of the device, there is still a very difficult way to go, 2018 Year may be a node, but at that time flip-chip technology is no longer a tall technology.
5. Whether laser diode LD and visible light communication can recreate a new era of semiconductor lightingLaser illumination is a new light source recently proposed by Professor Nakamura Shuji. I think Nakamura is optimistic about lasers because his current research field is laser, especially blue and green laser diodes. His own consulting company is also promoting laser diodes.
(Photo: Nakamura Shuji himself as an advertising star endorsement Blu-ray laser diode)
Professor Nakamura has a mission to pursue the limits, so after completing the LED task, he feels that LED is not perfect. He thinks that laser is the best light source. Like many R&D scientists, they only pursue the ultimate and perfect, but ignore the economy. Benefits, scientists are generally not good operators or managers, so blindly optimistic without mass production economic considerations, and then said to replace LED lighting, I think he is an optimist, not pragmatic.
But he also saw the direction, that is, how to use China's power to accomplish his mission. This direction is correct. If China can complete a revolutionary breakthrough in the price of GaN substrate, perhaps laser lighting has a chance, but Absolutely not very fast, I estimate that there will be a quick breakthrough in special lighting such as car and laser display. It is estimated that there will be a certain proportion of cars and laser displays occupying the market around 2018. As for the laser to penetrate into general lighting, I To be optimistic for at least five years, pessimistic estimates can never be replaced.
The key is whether China's power can help Nakamura's efforts. In the future, all cars can have laser headlights. Micro laser projectors can not be popularized. The cooperation between Nakamura Shuji and Chinese manufacturing will be the only possibility and opportunity!
(â–² Figure 6, the current state of visible light communication technology and future challenges)
The concept of LiFi was first proposed by Professor Haas of the University of Edinburgh in the United Kingdom. LiFi, also known as visible light communication (VLC), is a cross-integration for the LED lighting industry, the communication industry, and the Internet of Things industry. It has broad market application space and strategy. High-tech development prospects, many research units in the world are working on high-response rate GaN-based LEDs. Many research groups have found that single-quantum well GaN-based LED structures are easier to obtain high response rates and better temperature characteristics. The optical fiber transmission rate of 250 Mbit/s is obtained under the condition of 20 mA. At present, the illumination level LED satisfies the application requirements of visible light communication, and the speed can reach 150 M/sec.
Although visible light communication has already touched on the initial application of positioning, this new concept is still in the laboratory stage. In the future, with the efficient conversion of data and the multi-channel transmission system and other supporting technologies, visible light communication should respond to the era of big data. At higher requirements, LiFi may stand out, as shown in Figure 6. Currently, it is only in the laboratory's successful stage. It takes at least five years before the technology matures and popularizes. Perhaps after the two years of "Huawei" began to pay attention to this technology, We can see whether this technology has made a pioneering contribution to the LED industry. At that time, I may be more concerned about how to make my LEDs have both illumination brightness and faster visible light transmission under the single quantum well structure.
6. Lighting and display patterns in the next five yearsThe future of lighting is the LED system, which cannot be reversed, because LED has brought the technology and cost to the extreme, almost no light source can compete with LED, other such as laser, OLED and plasma source are estimated only in the special lighting market. Play. The display is not the case, LCD and LED cooperation, but the ghosts, against the challenges of OLED, quantum dots and laser display, micro LED is like the tiger behind the LED fox, it seems that the momentum is huge, in fact, the eight characters are not yet a glimpse, The so-called foxes and tigers are also. At present, the displayed market has entered a new era of scuffles. Every technology is a big investment, and no one can afford to lose. In my observation, the large size display will be LCD and laser projection in the future. The competition shown, the small and medium size is estimated to be the world of LCD, OLED and quantum dots, will Micro LED be the last reaper? I can't predict things after five years, so it shouldn't be possible in five years!
7, the adjustment and transfer of the role of LED technology peopleIn the past ten years, LED has absorbed a large number of talents at home and abroad. In the past three years, due to the transformation of the LED industry from the semiconductor industry attribute to the lighting industry, a wave of talent bubbles broke out. In the past, LED technology talents were almost higher than other industry technicians. More than 50%, after the adjustment of this industry property, LED has released a large number of high-end manpower. In this era of rapid technological change, the technology you currently have is not necessarily your iron rice bowl, maybe you have financial freedom, so You can start enjoying your future life. If not, I think of the way out there are three directions for your reference:
First, if you have a good foreign language ability and a high emotional intelligence EQ, the development of multiple orientations may allow you to continue to swim in this industry, LED lighting industry may not need so many specialized technical personnel, but with China LED The international attempt is strong. China LED needs international talents with technical and management background. If you are powerful enough, many Chinese LED bosses will ask you to manage the US, Dutch and German employees. Do you want to challenge?
Second, human enjoyment of the senses will never stop. Perhaps you are still very dead-minded. I think that OLED may not be the end of display technology. I think that there may be a chance for Micro LED in the display, you can continue to struggle in this industry. , but you will be very lonely, your boss may reduce the budget, the research and development team may be downsized, very little money, few technical teams, maybe the salary has shrunk, I hope you can still stand under such conditions, Of course, if you are lucky, I will only tell you "to cherish it" in the development of these future technologies in the wealthy local companies.
Third, if you are in the industry of similar materials or technology, if you are less than forty years old, you can try two areas of high school, but you need to debug your mindset, start from the learner, and lower your body. There is also the opportunity to become the second spring of your career. Lasers and high-power devices will be new technologies in the next decade. In particular, Shenzhen is preparing to cooperate with Nakamura laser technology. It is not impossible for Shenzhen to be a semiconductor laser manufacturing center. China is now madly supporting the semiconductor industry, just because the amount of semiconductor chips imported by China is actually higher than that of oil. The GaN power devices that are exposed to rain and dew may also have large capital investment and support, as nitriding. Are you excited about the master of gallium LED technology?
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