In March this year, Shenzhen announced the abolition of the LED industry planning policy, which was once interpreted by the outside world to avoid the appearance of a second "photovoltaic". Recently, the reporter conducted a survey on the current status of LED companies. From the perspective of the first-line situation, since this year, LED backlight and lighting market demand is strong, and orders from chip, packaging and application manufacturers are full. Some entrepreneurs and industry analysts believe that the LED outbreak will start in the fourth quarter of this year, followed by a boom of seven to eight years.
LED industry has huge space
Lighting market outbreak is approaching
Authoritative data predicts that by 2020 the global lighting market will exceed 150 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.9% from 2010's 134 billion US dollars. Although the overall scale growth is not large, the lighting product structure will change significantly. Among them, LED lighting market share will increase from about 5 billion US dollars in 2010 to 75 billion US dollars. In other words, it has expanded 15 times in 10 years. In addition, according to data from the Taiwan Topological Industry Research Institute, the current penetration rate of global LED lighting is only 10%, and by 2015 or at the latest 2020, the penetration rate will reach 50%.
The first-line entrepreneurs from LED felt the same optimism, thinking that "an industry outbreak is imminent." In an exclusive interview with China Securities Journal, Zhao Wei, chairman of Zhao Chi, said, "The LED industry has huge room for growth and it is impossible to become the second photovoltaic." The reason is that LEDs belong to consumer electronics. The biggest feature of consumer electronics is that they are widely used and the market is extremely broad. He judged that the critical point of the LED market outbreak is near, and the next seven to eight years will usher in a period of industrial prosperity.
In fact, due to the high cost of chips and heat dissipation materials, the application scope of LED products, especially lighting products, has been restricted for a long time. Relevant data show that in early 2013, the purchase cost of LED lighting was 7-8 times that of ordinary energy-saving lamps, and twice that of energy-saving lamps with dimming function. For example, the LED lighting products of mainstream European and American brand manufacturers are priced at US $ 19 / thousand lumens, while ordinary energy-saving lamps cost only US $ 2.5 / thousand lumens, and energy-saving lamps with dimming function only cost $ 10 / thousand lumens.
But as far as the reporter knows, there are many places where LED lighting can save costs, and the space is not small. For example, in the future, the chip is expected to continue to decline by 20%, and the heat dissipation aluminum material can save 30%. Gu Wei said, “As the chip continues to reduce prices, at the same time, the chip luminous efficiency has improved, the heat dissipation device has been greatly simplified, and the price of LED lighting products is constantly approaching energy-saving lamps.â€
The quote from the merchant confirms this. According to data from Jingdong Mall in May 2013, a lighting brand's 800-lumen product (equivalent to 60W incandescent lamp brightness) is priced at only 50 yuan, which is equivalent to 10 US dollars per thousand lumens. If you take into account the export tax rebate factor, the export price is about 9 US dollars / thousand lumens. This can already be "committed to courtesy" with energy-saving lamps with dimming function.
Hua Huai Securities analyst Gu Huaihuai predicted in the research report that LED light sources will fall to US $ 15 / thousand lumens by the beginning of 2014, and the price of light sources for some radical Asia-Pacific lighting manufacturers will fall to US $ 8 / thousand lumens. In about 2-3 years, the cost of LED lighting products will drop to the critical replacement point ($ 5) for the large-scale replacement of global energy-saving lamps.
He inferred that the LED lighting market may erupt in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year. In terms of products, large-scale substitution of LEDs for traditional light source products may be the first to expand in the commercial lighting field, especially in the market segment that requires dimming function. By region, regions with high industrial and commercial electricity prices, such as Europe and Japan, may be the first to start. Taking Japan as an example, the extra cost of using LED light sources compared to ordinary energy-saving lamps can be recovered within 2 years. "It is expected that in early 2015, the domestic LED lighting market in Europe and Japan will start. At the same time, the industrial and commercial lighting market in developing countries will also start."
Cost reduction space still exists
Brand manufacturers have obvious advantages
Although there is a lot of space in the LED market, due to the low entry barrier, brand manufacturers and cottage manufacturers are fighting fiercely. Some cottage products even have a "price advantage" over brand manufacturers. Industry insiders pointed out that in the future, brand manufacturers with advantages in production scale and cost-effectiveness of products will eventually win. First, compared with cottage manufacturers, large-scale enterprises have stronger bargaining power in chip procurement; second, brand manufacturers are more competitive in product design and technological innovation. Although the price of cottage products is cheap, the main reason is the use of cheap chips and driving power, and the heat sink also cut corners.
In fact, Zhaochi started planning the LED industry as early as 2010, and set up a subsidiary Shenzhen Zhaochi Energy Saving Lighting Co., Ltd. to develop LED packaging, TV backlighting and lighting business. In 2011, the company officially launched LED packaging, TV backlighting and lighting production. In the second half of the year, the company achieved full self-sufficiency in TV backlighting; the lighting products obtained cooperation with first-line brands such as Op, Mitsubishi Laser (Japan), TCL lamps, Mitsubishi Chemical (Japan), and Speedmaster Electronics GP (Europe). LED revenue reached 270 million yuan that year. Realized the scale of production in that year, profitability in that year, and sales in that year.
Judging from the current revenue composition of domestic LED manufacturing companies, most of the revenue comes from the domestic market, and most are related to government projects. Gu Wei believes that Zhao Chi has three major differences. The first is its huge demand for TV backlights. He said that unlike other LED companies that have to go through the growth process from embryos, babies to adults, Zhao Chi has a huge demand for TV backlights. Therefore, the company's LED industry is "adult" from birth. The second is the tradition of “reducing costs through technological innovationâ€. He said that technological innovation around cost reduction has become Zhao Chi's corporate gene. "This is the key to the company's ability to stand out in the fierce TV ODM market. We will also use this ability in the LED business to gain a competitive advantage." Once again, it is a solid overseas customer resource. After years of hard work, Zhao Chi has accumulated a large number of solid customer resources in overseas markets, including brand and store customers. The company's LED business will be "the first month near the water tower". Judging from the situation in the past two years, Zhaochi LED lighting business is the first to break through from the overseas market, and then triumphantly.
As of the end of 2012, in addition to the continued cooperation with the aforementioned old customers in 2011, the company's lighting products have also added Zhejiang Sunshine, South Korea's Jiansong, Xi Wannian, Lidl, TCL, SC Johnson and Hongyan Electrical Appliances. In addition to its own use, TV backlight products are also supplied to other TV manufacturers and professional TV module manufacturers, such as Skyworth, Panda, Tsinghua Tongfang, Diguang Electronics, and Taiwan Fuxiang. In addition to its own use, the packaged products are also supplied to Shenzhen Tuobang, Snow Wright, Djin Dongfang, Shanghai Yaming and Zhejiang Sunshine.
Gu Wei said that the current LED is like a TV in 2006 and 2007. As long as you invest in it and do your best, this industry will develop rapidly because the market is infinite. The company considers leaning resources towards LEDs in the future, continuously expanding high-quality customers at home and abroad, rapidly increasing production capacity, and turning LEDs into the company's second-largest performance engine. Revenue should be 50% of the company's revenue, or even more.
It is understood that Zhaochi currently has 50 LED packaging lines and 8 lighting assembly lines. Next, in order to meet the needs of market development, the company will quickly expand its production capacity. "Whether it is a DVD or a TV, Zhaochi is the first, and the worst is the top three. With LED, we will also hold high and strive to become the leader of the entire industry in China." Gu Wei said.
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