European orders significantly reduce air-conditioner export growth next year

The traditional markets such as Europe are not booming. Emerging markets such as Brazil, India, and Russia maintain their growth momentum. Estimates for China's air conditioner exports during the 2012 freezing year are similar to or slightly lower than those for 2011.

"First Financial Daily" reporter learned on the 16th at the 110th China Import and Export Commodity Fair (hereinafter referred to as "Canton Fair") that due to the appreciation of the renminbi, the recent decline in the price of copper and other factors, the annual frozen export prices of air conditioners in 2012 It is not clear yet.

Unclear market

“This autumn trade fair is a benchmark for air conditioner exports in the 2012 freezing year. The major manufacturers have not made any specific quotation, and the upward trend is imperative, but none of them first spoke.” Chen Ming, Chief of Administrative Personnel, Ningbo Oaks Import & Export Co., Ltd. Say.

Despite the unfavorable factors such as the European debt crisis and the appreciation of the renminbi, the popularity of the Canton Fair’s home appliance brand museum was very strong yesterday. Xiao Youyuan, general manager of Zhuhai Gree Electric Co., Ltd.’s overseas sales company, analyzed: “This year's market is uncertain, and many customers want to understand the situation in China to see if the price of air conditioners is up or down.”

This year, the appreciation of the renminbi has increased the cost of air-conditioning by about 4%. However, the price of copper fell from more than RMB 70,000/tonne in early September to more than RMB 50,000/tonne.

Xiao Youyuan believes that the rise in air-conditioning prices is a general trend, and it is expected that the exchange rate of the renminbi will continue to rise, and the operating costs of enterprises may also continue to rise. The short-term decline in the price of copper will only temporarily slow down the increase in the prices of air-conditioning exports, which will reduce the rate of increase, for example, from 5% to 3%.

Liao Shixing, head of the Overseas Market Management Department of Guangdong Zhigao Air-Conditioning Co., Ltd., judged that the exchange rate of RMB will increase the air-conditioning cost by 4% this year and the price of copper will decrease. However, the cost of sheet metal will increase. Therefore, this year's air-conditioning export price will coincide with Last year was basically flat.

"Now the market is not clear, we will maintain the price stability, after-effects, we are against the big drop." Liu Guizhong, assistant president of the Guangdong Galanz Group Co., Ltd. frankly stated that buyers and suppliers are now very fragile psychological.

Since the export price of air conditioners is still not clear, some overseas merchants are also pushing back orders. Chen Ming told reporters that the first two days of autumn exchanges last year, the Oakland air-conditioning export orders have reached 30,000 to 40,000 units/sets, and the first day of the autumn fair this year, orders were only 15,500 units/sets, "Europe's customers reduced by 20% to 40% ".

Turn to emerging markets

Most of the production companies have told reporters that due to the debt crisis in Europe, this year's European air-conditioning orders have decreased significantly. However, orders in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa (except North Africa) and South America have increased. In general, the growth rate of air conditioner exports has slowed down significantly.

Xiao Youyuan predicts that due to the economic problems in Europe and the United States, potential consumers lack confidence; and in the freezing year of 2011, the weather is not good, and both India and Russia have air-conditioning inventory. Therefore, China's air-conditioning export volume in the 2012 freezing year will be flat compared to the 2011 freezing year, or A slight decline. In the frozen year of 2011, the increase in China's air conditioner export volume reached 20% to 30%.

However, in the long run, the potential of developing countries and regions such as India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Africa is huge, so China's air conditioner export market is still promising. It is understood that Brazil has now ranked third among the countries with the largest volume of air conditioner exports in China.

Feng Bin, the vice president and senior economist of Chunlan (Group) Company, told reporters that at this year's Canton Fair, Europe and the United States had fewer merchants, and there were more merchants from Turkey, Russia and Saudi Arabia, and there were also many merchants from Africa and South America. Emerging markets have accounted for 60% of Chunlan's air-conditioning exports.

When Oaks set its 2012 annual plan in May this year, it also focused on Europe as an overseas expansion, and has now shifted its focus to emerging markets such as Brazil, Vietnam, and Russia. At present, emerging markets have exceeded 50% of Chigo's air-conditioning export volume.

As some emerging markets set higher import tariffs, it is a trend for Chinese companies to establish air-conditioning assembly plants in developing countries. Gree has three overseas factories in Vietnam, Brazil and Pakistan, and its Indonesian plant will also be put into production by the end of this year. Galanz adopts the bulk export and local assembly model in Brazil, Russia and India.